Margir hér á huga hafa haldið því fram að stríð við Írak yrði “bara olíustríð fyrir bandarísk olíufyrirtæki”. Þetta er auðvitað vinsælt að segja en vitið bak við þessi orð er ef til vill ekki svo mikið eftir allt saman.

Lesið:
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2847905.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2847905.stm</a>

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Tilvitnun:
“No question, Iraq is a very big oil country. Its reserves are the second largest in the world - behind only those of Saudi Arabia.

But the real picture is different. Iraq represents just 3% of the world's total production capacity. Its oil exports are at about the same level as Nigeria's.

In contrast to the 1990-91 Gulf crisis, which was more about energy security, this current crisis is focused on overall security, and it requires several leaps of logic to conclude that the current Iraq crisis is ”all about oil“.

Physically, Iraq could double its current capacity, but that could well take a decade or more.

No US administration or any British government would launch so momentous a campaign - and take such risks - just to facilitate a handful of oil development contracts and a moderate increase in supply half a decade from now.”

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Kannski ein tilvitnun í viðbót:
“Iraq is not Afghanistan. It has the means, through oil, to pay for rebuilding the country.

But a new government will also have another priority. It will be determined to bolster its sovereignty, legitimacy and nationalist credentials - all of which will be essential requirements for holding the country together. This ensures that when the time comes to sit down with the oil companies, Iraq will be a tough negotiator.

There should be no assumption that Iraq will welcome foreign investors on a reasonable timetable. History warns that such is not a foregone conclusion.

After the 1991 Gulf War, Kuwait said it would open its oil industry to foreign investment; 11 years later that has yet to happen - because of nationalistic opposition in Kuwait's parliament.”

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Farið varlega í slagorðagleðinni!
<br><br><a href=“mailto:geirag@hi.is”>geirag@hi.is</a